much of world reopening in March 2021

[getaway]

what about Australia ?

It seems cases of that virus so low in Qld, they are searching thru sewerage for traces

WTTC forecasts return of 100 million tourism jobs (travelmole.com)

[Harbour Dweller]

Rather than Australia, take a gander at the continuing infection rate and deaths in the northern hemisphere.

March 2021 they say. As Australian royalty once said ‘tell him he’s dreaming!’

[Fonz121]

The virus has peaked. Cases are starting to continually run under the seven day average in countries where they’ve started vaccinating people. Deaths are still high but they lag behind cases and they’ll soon be on the decline as well. Not sure if it’s the vaccine or the virus running out of steam on its own. Either way, I think we’ve turned the corner and can start looking forward to better days.

Of course it doesn’t help when Brendan Murphy is on tv saying that he doesn’t think we can open borders even with a vaccinated population. If someone could explain that logic to me that would be appreciated.

[Global Aviator]

I would be the first person to welcome world travel. I certainly miss well... travel!

Interestingly -

QF have LHR flights available from July.
Jetstar have flights DRW to SIN from March 29th.

Now I know this has been discussed in other threads, but really, March? Seriously is this not taking the p*ss???

[Momoe]

WTTC prediction is not bullish, it's dreamtiming. Anticipating a 17% downfall compared to 2019 is ridiculous. Australia may have the virus under control (good job BTW) but even if Europe/USA are fully vaccinated by mid year, the net reduction in income is going to severely affect travel for years.
Some jobs are never going to return, online shopping/working has moved forward exponentially due to the pandemic so high street retail is going to shrink even further (and it wasn't in good shape before the pandemic).
That's just one example, think pubs, theatre, cinema, tourism, office real estate and you're scratching the surface.

[NGsim]

Originally Posted by Fonz121

Of course it doesn’t help when Brendan Murphy is on tv saying that he doesn’t think we can open borders even with a vaccinated population. If someone could explain that logic to me that would be appreciated.

That’s a fairly easy explanation. Mr Murphy’s job is solely related to health related results. Any risk potentially jeopardizes those results even if social and financial results greatly surpass the ‘cost’ in our eyes.

We have a funny attitude toward risk and consequence in our industry.
We manage small to medium risk incredibly well however we don’t typically face litigation issues in the public eye when significant pilot error is raised because we generally don’t survive to be litigated!
Unlike in most other industries where the appetite for risk has reduced to basically zero to the point that people are too afraid to make decisions.

[getaway]

Originally Posted by Global Aviator

I would be the first person to welcome world travel. I certainly miss well... travel!

Interestingly -

QF have LHR flights available from July.
Jetstar have flights DRW to SIN from March 29th.

Now I know this has been discussed in other threads, but really, March? Seriously is this not taking the p*ss???

why not ? 24 hours is a very long time in politics. It's got nothing to do with health anymore.

[getaway]

Originally Posted by Harbour Dweller

Rather than Australia, take a gander at the continuing infection rate and deaths in the northern hemisphere.

March 2021 they say. As Australian royalty once said ‘tell him he’s dreaming!’

so how do we know the actual deaths rate from corona cf. old age ? We don't. All we have is dodgy media beating this up.

[Global Aviator]

The problem is if inbound 14 day quarantine is still a requirement... What about the caps?

I’ll certainly be one of the first to travel when I can.

I do agree 24 minutes is a lifetime in Aussie politics!

[Kickstarter]

Originally Posted by Global Aviator

The problem is if inbound 14 day quarantine is still a requirement... What about the caps?

I’ll certainly be one of the first to travel when I can.

I do agree 24 minutes is a lifetime in Aussie politics!

no quarantine for inbound kiwis

[DanV2]

So much BNEA320 alters in this thread, I wonder how many of his numerous accounts will post here.

[jonkster]

Originally Posted by getaway

so how do we know the actual deaths rate from corona cf. old age ? We don't. All we have is dodgy media beating this up.

look at excess mortality figures for different countries. This doesn't record cause of death just is a comparison of current deaths compared to expected averages. It is way above average. Based on that something is killing people at a rate even higher than the official covid counts.

Look at freezer trucks parked outside hospitals in many cities in the UK and US because there isn't enough room in the mortuaries. Look at the occupancy of ICU beds compared to normal. Something is making people sicker and is killing people at a (much) higher rate than normal.

I am struggling to avoid being sarcastic but when I see photos of what is happening in hospitals in the UK and US and hear the stories of everyday nurses and doctors on the front line of this (ie not the media or politicians) and their heartbreaking stories and courage to keep going, I shake my head when people start trying to say it is all a myth. The dodgy media is not 'all we have'. Go and visit a hospital ICU in London or SF if you want to prove your case that it is all just a beat up. Talk to the people who are in the front line and tell them they are just beating things up.

rant off

[Green.Dot]

Thanks BNEA320 for starting another thread talking about exactly the same stuff.

Very original.

[Sailvi767]

Keep in mind that the number of excess deaths is not all covid. People are skipping normal preventive medical care and in some locations most elective medical procedures were stopped. In addition mental health issues have led to a increase in suicide. Another thing is that the flu season is non existent! In the US hospitals get additional funds for covid patients but not for flu patients. Virtually no flu deaths. Perhaps some are being miss categorized!

[Momoe]

Sailvi767,

Fair point but there is an element of you making the case for Covid. Because healthcare is at breaking point dealing with Covid, non-critical cases are not being seen, very few people are skipping appointments because they are gold dust and you literally could be dead before the next one; having said that some folk are fearful of getting Covid and are not calling in health issues, even though most doctors are doing virtual surgeries.
Covid is a prime factor in many mental health issues, stuck at home, unable to socialise and in a lot of cases concerns about money, job etc.

Covid is the killer, directly or indirectly.

[Deltasierra010]

March is optimistic, that’s only 6 weeks time, although I do expect travel to be allowed by Easter, is there really very much extra infection by international travel compared with infection transmission within the UK. We are seeing a peak now, vaccination is in full swing, there is every chance of a steep decline, the next 4 weeks will tell us, if deaths are still high it’s going to be a long haul.

[Northern Monkey]

Travel isn't going to be allowed by Easter in my view.

What we are going to see is an "at all costs" approach to protecting the progress made through vaccination. In effect this means seriously tough measures at the borders to prevent any vaccine resistant strain entering the UK [insert other country here]. I think travel will only open up when other countries see their levels of infection drop dramatically such that the chance of importing anything nasty is deemed to be negligible.

I think everyone thought with these vaccines coming along that 2021 could be a good year. What is becoming clear is that it won't be and this is all going to take a lot longer than we thought.

[LostWanderer]

From what I have read, there is a strong belief amongst some in the medical/scientific community that the virus is still able to be carried and spread by those vaccinated to those who are not.

If this has has even the slightest possibility of happening, nothing other than very few “bubble” destinations will be open for travel in the next 6-8 or even 12 months unless the government pulls off a miracle and vaccinates the entire country, studies the effectiveness and finds no risks for reopening travel overseas by June. Basically it’s in “tell him he’s dreaming” territory.

London, the US, Japan and most other destinations at all this year in my opinion is extremely unlikely to happen, other than the odd repatriation, charter or maybe a cargo run. Hope to be proven wrong so I can get out of my sh##ty side hustle and back to the skies.

[1A_Please]

I sort of wonder why I'm bothering replying to another pointless BNEA320 (aka Sybil) thread. Despite all the evidence to the contrary, he continues to believe that int'l travel is going to return to 2019 levels at any tick of the clock. He seems to believe Covid is a giant hoax solely created so he can't have a skiing trip to Whistler this northern winter.

The facts are QF has opened bookings from 1/7 but the government has been clear that they will control the border reopening not QF and 1/7 is not a realistic date and won't happen. Brendan Murphy (head of Health Dept and former CHO) has clearly stated he doesn't believe there will be any meaningful int'l travel in 2021. The Australian vaccination program is due to run throughout the year with an aim for all willing Australians to be vaccinated by the end of October. From October, the government will evaluate how other countries are progressing with their vaccination programs including the CoVax program which is aimed to deliver vaccines to poorer countries. Only then, will they consider reopening the border to quarantine-free travel.

At the same time, the world through the WHO, UN and all international airlines has to develop a system whereby vaccination statuses can be checked by countries for all passengers prior to embarkation. This will probably be via some sort of tracking within e-passports but getting a common system across all countries within 10 months is quite a challenge.

[jonkster]

Originally Posted by Sailvi767

Keep in mind that the number of excess deaths is not all covid. People are skipping normal preventive medical care and in some locations most elective medical procedures were stopped. In addition mental health issues have led to a increase in suicide. Another thing is that the flu season is non existent! In the US hospitals get additional funds for covid patients but not for flu patients. Virtually no flu deaths. Perhaps some are being miss categorized!

so you are saying the reason that ICUs are overflowing with people suffering acute respiratory distress, hospitals are running short of oxygen and they are parking freezer trucks for dead bodies outside hospitals in a country that regularly describes itself as having the most advanced health care capability in the world, is because: it is the flu, that there is a higher number of suicides and because people aren't having elective procedures or are skipping regular health checks and the alternative explanation (that there is a viral infection that has traveled world wide) is all a huge conspiracy by the world's media, hospital administrators across the globe and most of the world's politicians and most nations health authorities for some unspecified (but I assume nefarious) reason. Is that correct?

A world wide viral infection seems way more believable to me. Maybe I am just gullible though .

Or you are trolling in which case well played, 'cause I bit.