rex Celebrating 20 Years
You can round out Rex's SYD-MEL flights with ZL009 with 46 pax. That gives them 252 pax across five flights. Revenue would likely not cover fuel and airport charges.
But, staying with the present situation, here's how MEL-SYD looks for Rex tomorrow;
ZL018 30
ZL042 49
ZL102 48
ZL152 56
ZL182 28
That's 211 pax over five flights. That sees the day out for Rex on one of the busiest city-pair routes in the world with sub-30 percent loads. They would have lost money for the entire day on that sector and it should be their money-maker.
Separately, you were correct in stating that -MFM will be their next jet (anyone's guess as to why they didn't request -RXU). Don't assume that it will have the same hex code as the previously registered aircraft though.
The Rex numbers won’t be accurate until pushback. They will probably double, or you would hope, triple. To make money, well, they need to quadruple.
The numbers that PJ quoted were accurate at the time. They were essentially confirmed independently by the study put together by The Australian newspaper. How many times does that point need to be made?
But, staying with the present situation, here's how MEL-SYD looks for Rex tomorrow;
ZL018 30
ZL042 49
ZL102 48
ZL152 56
ZL182 28
That's 211 pax over five flights. That sees the day out for Rex on one of the busiest city-pair routes in the world with sub-30 percent loads. They would have lost money for the entire day on that sector and it should be their money-maker.
Separately, you were correct in stating that -MFM will be their next jet (anyone's guess as to why they didn't request -RXU). Don't assume that it will have the same hex code as the previously registered aircraft though.
But, staying with the present situation, here's how MEL-SYD looks for Rex tomorrow;
ZL018 30
ZL042 49
ZL102 48
ZL152 56
ZL182 28
That's 211 pax over five flights. That sees the day out for Rex on one of the busiest city-pair routes in the world with sub-30 percent loads. They would have lost money for the entire day on that sector and it should be their money-maker.
Separately, you were correct in stating that -MFM will be their next jet (anyone's guess as to why they didn't request -RXU). Don't assume that it will have the same hex code as the previously registered aircraft though.
If they are looking long term, then growth is far better than stagnant or declining
Unrelated, can anyone elaborate on why, when searching QF, half the seats on a lot of Sydney-Melbourne flights are blocked?
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No obviously as some low loads are negative $$
Yes
Numbers are trending up
Passengers are experiencing REX Jet and from trip reports, are having better experiences that QF/JQ and VA and passengers are getting more bang for their buck
Being somewhat of an unknown and their lack of mass advertising, a slow start was always on the cards
Cast your minds back a few years pre pandemic
REXs loads had never been high, low to mid 50%s average over 10 or so years
But they always turned a profit, not massive, but a profit is a profit....
Post pandemic
REX has moved away from some low yielding routes
Kangaroo Island, Albury-Melbourne, Grafton, Lismore, Ballina, Bathurst, Cooma etc
Some through direct competition, some indirect
They moved their SAABs to Port Macquarie, Coffs and Devonport, even had a lash at Sydney-Canberra
Their SAAB loads have are now up in the 60%-70% range
Most of the above was a direct result of QF bullying REX
But REX are in no way down and out
They may have exited some low yielding routes, but QF lost the battle on Melbourne-Mount Gambier and Wagga, citing lack of frames for Wagga and passenger revolt (sorry low patronage) for Mount Gambier
Then buying Cobham
50% increase of 737s by Christmas
Likely trans-con and higher frequencies on the triangle as a result
Again, it's more likely REX is looking at 5 years, 10 years, not how many bums on seats in the short term
Again, it's more likely REX is looking at 5 years, 10 years, not how many bums on seats in the short term
They are definitely not a Pilot. I know some pilots think they can run airlines but $hit this stuff is off the charts, do us a favour and stay the heck away from this industry with this dribble.
Yes and no
No obviously as some low loads are negative $$
Yes
Numbers are trending up
Passengers are experiencing REX Jet and from trip reports, are having better experiences that QF/JQ and VA and passengers are getting more bang for their buck
Being somewhat of an unknown and their lack of mass advertising, a slow start was always on the cards
Cast your minds back a few years pre pandemic
REXs loads had never been high, low to mid 50%s average over 10 or so years
But they always turned a profit, not massive, but a profit is a profit....
Post pandemic
REX has moved away from some low yielding routes
Kangaroo Island, Albury-Melbourne, Grafton, Lismore, Ballina, Bathurst, Cooma etc
Some through direct competition, some indirect
They moved their SAABs to Port Macquarie, Coffs and Devonport, even had a lash at Sydney-Canberra
Their SAAB loads have are now up in the 60%-70% range
Most of the above was a direct result of QF bullying REX
But REX are in no way down and out
They may have exited some low yielding routes, but QF lost the battle on Melbourne-Mount Gambier and Wagga, citing lack of frames for Wagga and passenger revolt (sorry low patronage) for Mount Gambier
Then buying Cobham
50% increase of 737s by Christmas
Likely trans-con and higher frequencies on the triangle as a result
Again, it's more likely REX is looking at 5 years, 10 years, not how many bums on seats in the short term
No obviously as some low loads are negative $$
Yes
Numbers are trending up
Passengers are experiencing REX Jet and from trip reports, are having better experiences that QF/JQ and VA and passengers are getting more bang for their buck
Being somewhat of an unknown and their lack of mass advertising, a slow start was always on the cards
Cast your minds back a few years pre pandemic
REXs loads had never been high, low to mid 50%s average over 10 or so years
But they always turned a profit, not massive, but a profit is a profit....
Post pandemic
REX has moved away from some low yielding routes
Kangaroo Island, Albury-Melbourne, Grafton, Lismore, Ballina, Bathurst, Cooma etc
Some through direct competition, some indirect
They moved their SAABs to Port Macquarie, Coffs and Devonport, even had a lash at Sydney-Canberra
Their SAAB loads have are now up in the 60%-70% range
Most of the above was a direct result of QF bullying REX
But REX are in no way down and out
They may have exited some low yielding routes, but QF lost the battle on Melbourne-Mount Gambier and Wagga, citing lack of frames for Wagga and passenger revolt (sorry low patronage) for Mount Gambier
Then buying Cobham
50% increase of 737s by Christmas
Likely trans-con and higher frequencies on the triangle as a result
Again, it's more likely REX is looking at 5 years, 10 years, not how many bums on seats in the short term
Right so things will magically improve in 5 or 10 years. That worked for Tiger. Only lost a billion in 13 years. In fact, as time went on, things got worse. Same at Ozjet. Same at Strategic.
They are definitely not a Pilot. I know some pilots think they can run airlines but $hit this stuff is off the charts, do us a favour and stay the heck away from this industry with this dribble.
They are definitely not a Pilot. I know some pilots think they can run airlines but $hit this stuff is off the charts, do us a favour and stay the heck away from this industry with this dribble.
Same same with the agency deal. They could have signed up with Flight Centre from the get-go. It took them 18 months of being bled white to get the message.
As the Zen Master was fond of saying, "We'll see."
Last edited by MickG0105; 7th Aug 2022 at 09:21. Reason: Typo, clarification on loads
Yes and no
No obviously as some low loads are negative $$
Yes
Numbers are trending up
Passengers are experiencing REX Jet and from trip reports, are having better experiences that QF/JQ and VA and passengers are getting more bang for their buck
Being somewhat of an unknown and their lack of mass advertising, a slow start was always on the cards
Cast your minds back a few years pre pandemic
REXs loads had never been high, low to mid 50%s average over 10 or so years
But they always turned a profit, not massive, but a profit is a profit....
Post pandemic
REX has moved away from some low yielding routes
Kangaroo Island, Albury-Melbourne, Grafton, Lismore, Ballina, Bathurst, Cooma etc
Some through direct competition, some indirect
They moved their SAABs to Port Macquarie, Coffs and Devonport, even had a lash at Sydney-Canberra
Their SAAB loads have are now up in the 60%-70% range
Most of the above was a direct result of QF bullying REX
But REX are in no way down and out
They may have exited some low yielding routes, but QF lost the battle on Melbourne-Mount Gambier and Wagga, citing lack of frames for Wagga and passenger revolt (sorry low patronage) for Mount Gambier
Then buying Cobham
50% increase of 737s by Christmas
Likely trans-con and higher frequencies on the triangle as a result
Again, it's more likely REX is looking at 5 years, 10 years, not how many bums on seats in the short term
No obviously as some low loads are negative $$
Yes
Numbers are trending up
Passengers are experiencing REX Jet and from trip reports, are having better experiences that QF/JQ and VA and passengers are getting more bang for their buck
Being somewhat of an unknown and their lack of mass advertising, a slow start was always on the cards
Cast your minds back a few years pre pandemic
REXs loads had never been high, low to mid 50%s average over 10 or so years
But they always turned a profit, not massive, but a profit is a profit....
Post pandemic
REX has moved away from some low yielding routes
Kangaroo Island, Albury-Melbourne, Grafton, Lismore, Ballina, Bathurst, Cooma etc
Some through direct competition, some indirect
They moved their SAABs to Port Macquarie, Coffs and Devonport, even had a lash at Sydney-Canberra
Their SAAB loads have are now up in the 60%-70% range
Most of the above was a direct result of QF bullying REX
But REX are in no way down and out
They may have exited some low yielding routes, but QF lost the battle on Melbourne-Mount Gambier and Wagga, citing lack of frames for Wagga and passenger revolt (sorry low patronage) for Mount Gambier
Then buying Cobham
50% increase of 737s by Christmas
Likely trans-con and higher frequencies on the triangle as a result
Again, it's more likely REX is looking at 5 years, 10 years, not how many bums on seats in the short term
ZL 31 Sydney Melbourne 46 now 65
ZL 125 Sydney Melbourne 68 now 84
ZL 141 Sydney Melbourne 45 now 63
ZL 161 Sydney Melbourne 47 now 63
ZL 009 Sydney Melbourne ?? now 54
Not including business....
329 / 66 average from 168 seats around 40%
Where do you think the break-even point is for one of those flights?
Good question Mick
I'll have a stab at 100-120
As you know there are an awful lot of factors in determining a break even
I have not as yet looked at other routes or weekend loads
I'm assuming (without looking) they are doing better on the Weekends and Gold Coast and Adelaide, which may push up their average loads though
If I were running REX and got to triple digits average by November, then that would be a very encouraging outcome
I'll have a stab at 100-120
As you know there are an awful lot of factors in determining a break even
I have not as yet looked at other routes or weekend loads
I'm assuming (without looking) they are doing better on the Weekends and Gold Coast and Adelaide, which may push up their average loads though
If I were running REX and got to triple digits average by November, then that would be a very encouraging outcome
I know of hardly any new entrants getting huge loads just after start up
Remembering we only really got back up and running this year
If your bet is 90 to break even, then November is a given
I'd reckon, factoring other routes, I think REX ain't far off, particularly when you factor weekend loads
You cannot guess at a break even load factor until you have an idea of their yields. Even the cost side of the profit equation is muddy because we don’t know when their lease escalators kick in. Given that fuel on the MEL-SYD route is costing $5,200 per sector average this week you would guess that the total cost is somewhere near $12k Maybe more.
For comparison, Southwest Air's costs on a similar leg would be around $7,700 USD in 2021. Fuel has only increased since then.
Just looked at a SYD MEL return flight late in last week of Aug. $213 round trip. The break even at that number is laughable.
editted to correct SWA data. Their costs are around $0.106/ASM.
Historically industry typical break even load factors are around 75%. When a carrier achieves significant cost savings they often squander it by offering too low fares.
For comparison, Southwest Air's costs on a similar leg would be around $7,700 USD in 2021. Fuel has only increased since then.
Just looked at a SYD MEL return flight late in last week of Aug. $213 round trip. The break even at that number is laughable.
editted to correct SWA data. Their costs are around $0.106/ASM.
Historically industry typical break even load factors are around 75%. When a carrier achieves significant cost savings they often squander it by offering too low fares.
Last edited by Australopithecus; 8th Aug 2022 at 07:25.