rex Celebrating 20 Years

[Deano969]

Some of todays numbers

MEL OOL
REX 658 = 97
VA average 145

MEL ADL
REX 437 121
REX 489 127
REX average 124
VA average 131

MEL BNE
REX 258 133
VA average 143

SYD OOL
REX 540 80
VA average 127

MEL CBR
REX 616 119
VA average 128

SYD BNE
REX 348 129
REX 384 121
REX average 125
VA average 127

MEL SYD
REX 018 168
REX 042 143
REX 102 130
REX 152 121
REX 182 115
REX average 135.4
VA average 130.6

Economy only
REX outbound average for today 123 = 73%
VA average same routes 133 = 80%

Note that REX had a better load factor on MEL-SYD than VA

So if VA are doing well, REX is closing the gap

Some are saying that low frequency is a negative for REX so one can only be confident that as they grow their fleet, their loads will also grow
Others are saying that REX are only getting good loads from spill over as QF/JQ and VA sell out, well VA are certainly not selling out
I would have put up QF loads, but can't get my head around all the blocked seats on their flights...

Conclusion
Only 7% difference between REX and VA on same routes
Or 11 bums on seats average per flight
I'd reckon the champagne is now on ice ready to be opened

[PoppaJo]

The data you are posting is completely inaccurate until the flight has actually departed. So your claims are not valid.

Virgin has a average of about 95% between 6-9am this morning.

So your statement that Rex has better loads vs Virgin on MEL-SYD is actually false.

[Deano969]

Originally Posted by PoppaJo

The data you are posting is completely inaccurate until the flight has actually departed. So your claims are not valid.

Virgin has a average of about 95% between 6-9am this morning.

So your statement that Rex has better loads vs Virgin on MEL-SYD is actually false.

All were checked around the same time so apples for apples
So far I am still 100% correct that REX is doing better than VA from Melbourne to Sydney

But as the day drags on seats are filling, correct
REX loads on MEL-SYD are now 162 161 135 136 117 average 142.2 = 84%

Outbound average for the day across the network now stands at 129.1 = 77%

REX first 2 loads MEL-SYD 162 and 161 = 161.5 = 96% which pips VA by 1%
And all business sold out on both flights as well

Who'd have thought that that REX would be out doing VA on MEL-SYD, even if it were just for today, given the ramblings and predictions of doom just a couple of months ago from the likes of PoppaJo and Mick

[43Inches]

Why are you still comparing Rex vs VA or QF, VA and QF have a massive backlog of credits to process, so bums on seats means absolutely nothing. This is probably why QF and VA have a massive cancellation rate and are combining flights as the revenue came in for them 2 years ago and they are trying to stem losses by putting as many on each flight rather than running flights that are essentially not making any new revenue. Rex allowed refunds early on with light loads anyway, so would have very few credit seats. If Rex is already matching VA on seats on load factors well that is a good thing for Rex, but really says nothing about yields. Rex is obviously on a long game here as are the other players, its not some solo startup like previous entrants, its evolving and being tweaked as it grows with already a few partners and an established regional feeder, which is doing extremely well at present. Everybody is going to have a crunch in the next few years due to crewing issues, assuming the economy doesn't imploded from inflation, and that wont only effect Rex, so who knows what will happen over the next 5 years.

[Deano969]

43 raises an excellent point
I did see VA had a cancellation on MEL-SYD today, helping consolidate their loads and giving an artificially high load factor
REX did a great thing for their customers during covid by offering full refunds instead of vouchers

So if new booking are to be counted only, then REX numbers are kinda looking even better
I guess you could also extrapolate that thousands of truckies spending $2000 per week on diesel at BP and earning $1000 per year QFFPs are also filling a ton of seats

REX can't be far off launching their own FFPs scheme right...

[MickG0105]

For those interested in actual data here are the comparative figures for VA and Rex despatched flights MEL-SYD as at 10.30am:

VA803 171 (163Y, 8J)
VA819 174 (166Y, 8J)
VA829 173 (165Y, 8J)
VA833 176 (168Y, 8J)
LF = 98.6%

ZL018 170 (8J, 162Y)
ZL034 169 (8J, 161Y)
LF = 96.3%

For the numerically challenged, 98.6 is greater than 96.3.

[PoppaJo]

Originally Posted by Deano969

All were checked around the same time so apples for apples
So far I am still 100% correct that REX is doing better than VA from Melbourne to Sydney

But as the day drags on seats are filling, correct
REX loads on MEL-SYD are now 162 161 135 136 117 average 142.2 = 84%

Outbound average for the day across the network now stands at 129.1 = 77%

REX first 2 loads MEL-SYD 162 and 161 = 161.5 = 96% which pips VA by 1%
And all business sold out on both flights as well

Who'd have thought that that REX would be out doing VA on MEL-SYD, even if it were just for today, given the ramblings and predictions of doom just a couple of months ago from the likes of PoppaJo and Mick

My predictions of doom stand. They won't be getting to 30 aircraft. It will never make money and they will never look after the employees. That's my opinion, your entitled to your own.

All were checked around the same time so apples for apples
So far I am still 100% correct that REX is doing better than VA from Melbourne to Sydney

If half the flight has not checked in, and the other flight has, then no, its apples for pineapples.

[SHVC]

I would take a punt that VA and even QF/JQ cancelations major reason for cancelations is not to consolidate it would be more than likely be crewing/staffing issues with COVID. Even if you’re a close contact you can not attend as a pilot/cabin crew that’s at JQ anyway that is the rule.

Rex only have 6 jets and is pretty much at capacity with their SY flights as they don’t have slots and can not transfer their SAAB slots for 73 use. Rex will need to start getting creative maybe WLM instead of SY. Also their J class might be full but means nothing when it is offered as a free upgrade on a $100 economy ticket, I know first hand, so that would make it a loss making seat.

[Mr_App]

I do have it on good authority that Rex ground staff are to upgrade all vacant Business seats to other passengers, for free.

That’s important for the record when Management come out claiming 100% J class loadings or some BS.

[43Inches]

Rex will need to start getting creative maybe WLM instead of SY.

Low likelihood of that, I hear there's a lot of on carriage from the regional network already so that would not work ex secondaries like WLM or AV. They will be hoping they can somehow snag some peak slots eventually, maybe when Badgeries opens and takes some internationals out of the loop. Part of QFs 60% line in the sand is also to justify its lion share of slots, so if they start to slip on that the ACCC might be moved to intervene to force access for competition, unlikely but stranger things.... Melbourne was smart to keep itself free of fixed slots, so as the mix of competition changes they can change who gets what % of slots to fit, QF will definitely lose out there as the others expand, unless they want to keep dumping capacity. This is definitely a major driver of offered flights vs combined into Sydney and Melbourne. Offer 20 flights a day to block up slots, operate 10-15 on rationalisation, however that was pre-planned. This was happening pre-covid with midday slots, there was ghost flights that almost never ran on some days.

[Deano969]

Originally Posted by MickG0105

For those interested in actual data here are the comparative figures for VA and Rex despatched flights MEL-SYD as at 10.30am:

VA803 171 (163Y, 8J)
VA819 174 (166Y, 8J)
VA829 173 (165Y, 8J)
VA833 176 (168Y, 8J)
LF = 98.6%

ZL018 170 (8J, 162Y)
ZL034 169 (8J, 161Y)
LF = 96.3%

For the numerically challenged, 98.6 is greater than 96.3.

Yeah so I was going off PoppaJo's flawed numbers VA around 95% I assumed he had his numbers right

[Deano969]

Originally Posted by PoppaJo

My predictions of doom stand. They won't be getting to 30 aircraft. It will never make money and they will never look after the employees. That's my opinion, your entitled to your own.


If half the flight has not checked in, and the other flight has, then no, its apples for pineapples.

Prediction 1
Current 6, 1 due, 2 on order the rest will depend on your prediction number 2
Prediction 2
LF today 80% and climbing I would think that will be a profit
LF Saturday 75%+ likely a profit
LF Friday 74%+ likely another profit
Prediction 3
Well that is between REX and it's employees, are you confident Poppa that mainline will stay under QF? There is a good chance that the shiny new 220s and 230/21s could be flown NJS, NWK or even JQ, reckon that would make employees very happy and as for VA, there doesn't seem to be many happy drivers there either

[Deano969]

Originally Posted by SHVC

Rex only have 6 jets and is pretty much at capacity with their SY flights as they don’t have slots and can not transfer their SAAB slots for 73 use.

Not quite true
Remember back when East West had a crack at busting the 2 airline agreement
They were not allowed on the triangle, so they started running SYD-ABX-MEL and SYD-OOL-BNE
REX could quite easily do the same until SWA opens
SYD-ABX-MEL
SYD-CFS-BNE
Not ideal, but gets the job done and they already have slots for their SAABs

[MickG0105]

Originally Posted by Deano969

Yeah so I was going off PoppaJo's flawed numbers VA around 95% I assumed he had his numbers right

You Tube

[SHVC]

Originally Posted by Mr_App

I do have it on good authority that Rex ground staff are to upgrade all vacant Business seats to other passengers, for free.

That’s important for the record when Management come out claiming 100% J class loadings or some BS.

Like I mentioned, seen it first hand. So everybody assumption on J class is flawed. The numbers will be way off, I would be 99% positive those seats will be loss making.

[43Inches]

My predictions of doom stand. They won't be getting to 30 aircraft. It will never make money and they will never look after the employees. That's my opinion, your entitled to your own.

Better ask the QLink pilot body how they felt about being forcibly re-based a few years back (pre covid) and now how the whole southern pilot body took a pay cut to fly the -200/300s. Then there's the awful EBA they signed on for, the lack of respect in upgrading QLink pilots, very poor treatment if you make a mistake and so on. Rex management look like fluffy bunnies compared to what QF have been doing to its pilot workforce the last decade. At least Rex is mostly talk and hot air, vs the actual issues going on at QF and VA the last few years. If the latest Rex EBA gets up the QLink pilots will be asking questions of management for sure.

[ACMS]

Nup, I’ve seen the flights, been on the flights, the people in J class weren’t upgraded and it was full.
All the Men and Women in J class were NOT upgraded from Y class, you can easily see that from their demeanor and the way they were dressed. A lot are frequent flyers.

A lot of idiots in here hoping Rex goes under, maybe for their own selfish reasons I don’t know.

A lot of you wouldn’t know your ass from your elbow.

Back to QF JQ or VA for you, worry about your own problems……there’s a few.

No soup for you.

[PoppaJo]

ACMS are you seriously telling me that there is a business case for 30 737s to be thrown on domestic? You wonder why nobody has faith in this? Because it’s not possible. Unless you can tell me how it can be done? I mean go and double our population tomorrow and for sure.

[ACMS]

I never said that or agreed to someone else saying that did I.

I’m just sick and tired of all the crap I see in here from people with agendas and ulterior motives keen to destroy good peoples jobs.

Originally Posted by PoppaJo

ACMS are you seriously telling me that there is a business case for 30 737s to be thrown on domestic? You wonder why nobody has faith in this? Because it’s not possible. Unless you can tell me how it can be done? I mean go and double our population tomorrow and for sure.

[ACMS]

Originally Posted by SHVC

Like I mentioned, seen it first hand. So everybody assumption on J class is flawed. The numbers will be way off, I would be 99% positive those seats will be loss making.

yeah sure, like half of the punters in QF 737 domestic aren’t staff on leisure travel or duty travel. Many times I’ve travelled QF and over half the seats were NOT full fare J pax……Pilots, flight attendants in uniform swamp J class a lot.

come on, do better.