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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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Old 12th Sep 2012, 08:10
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Deep-Water Oil Rigs as Strategic Weapons
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Old 12th Sep 2012, 09:39
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Thanks to Mao's (and later leaders') one child policy and (like the Indians), the Chinese preference for sons, there are about 25 million more males in their early 20s in China today than females. This has the potential for a social time bomb. I hope the Chinese leadership doesn't think a good long term regional war might help employ, (cull?) and distract all those extra young males.
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Old 12th Sep 2012, 11:28
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I know quite a few Chinese who think that China is bounded by ethnic origins.
They look forward to the day that Singapore becomes part of China.
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Old 12th Sep 2012, 11:30
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If you asked them to find it and get there they'd be involved in a multi vehicle pile up before they'd got 10 minutes out of Guangzhou.
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Old 13th Sep 2012, 08:30
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And now the Philippines!!!!

AW&ST: Tension Between Philippines And China Grows

US to set up command post facing South China Sea?
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Old 13th Sep 2012, 13:21
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I had to laugh at the AW&ST article. It started off by saying that China would teach the Phillipines a lesson like it did to North Vietnam.
The PLA had its nose rubbed in the mud by the Vietnamese.
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Old 13th Sep 2012, 18:34
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Some more piccies on Xinhua.

Editor's choice: China's military drills - Xinhua | English.news.cn
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Old 17th Sep 2012, 13:47
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Japanese Companies Close Facilities in China as Tensions Rise

China-Japan Dispute Over Islands Risks $340 Billion Trade

US wades into China-Japan island dispute with missile defense deal
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Old 17th Sep 2012, 14:58
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I hope they haven't wrecked my favourite teppanyaki restaurant in Shekou. The steak there is fantastic.

The Chinese are neurotic about their borders; it's a hangover from their perceived injustices by the western nations in the 19th century. They can rattle on about the written proof that they were wherever it was 1,500 years ago because then the Chinese were the big traders in the Far East. However, those events have been overtaken by history and this is something that Beijing is unwilling to grasp.

They are not going to annoy the Japanese too much; there is too much trade involved and certainly not the Americans, who are their 2nd largest market after the EU.

The usual shock, horror, thousands demonstrating in the street. TV running film of the Nanking Massacre where you see young women being dragged off by Japanese soldiers and rows of decapitated bodies. You could get the same thousands into a Chinese shopping mall without being crowded.
Most of them would not have a clue where Diaoyu Islands are and those who looked at a map would not notice the undisputed Japanese islands some 80 miles away. It's all happened before and will happen again.

The leadership in China is going to change soon. This will be forgotten for now.
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Old 20th Sep 2012, 07:14
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Telegraph: China, Japan and the world’s Agadir Crisis (1911)

The Corner: How Close are Japan and China to War?

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Old 21st Sep 2012, 07:58
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Commentary: The Coming Global Disorder
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Old 21st Sep 2012, 11:04
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Commentary: The Coming Global Disorder
I do not know why they are bleating about the Paracel Islands for? It is, and always has been, a part of China. This fact has been recognised in the past by Germany, France, the UK, the USA and Japan.

Vietnams interest stems from the fact that when the French ran Viet Nam they invaded The Paracel Islands. The Japanese kicked them out during their advance in 1942 even they were not at war with Vichy France. They were surrendered back to China after the war which is the Taiwanese claim for them but by then the Communists had taken over them as part of the civil war. That is the basis of the Peoples Republic's claim.

The Vietnamese had a go at getting them again and were repelled quite easily. It led to a very embarrassed American adviser doing the walk from China to Hong Kong over the Lo Wu bridge.

Try Google Earthing Woody Island Paracel Islands and you will be left in no doubt about who owns it.

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Old 25th Sep 2012, 10:44
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New chinese Carrier in service today

China's first aircraft carrier has entered into service, the Defence Ministry says. The 300m (990ft) Liaoning - named after the province where it was refitted - is a refurbished Soviet ship purchased from Ukraine.

For now the carrier has no operational aircraft and will be used for training.

But China says the vessel, which has undergone extensive sea trials, will increase its capacity to defend state interests.

But China's new carrier is more a symbol of a future capability than a potent naval threat itself. Getting into the carrier business takes time; a whole range of skills has to be learnt; and carriers have to operate with other ships, requiring a new mindset across the navy as a whole. It could be a steep learning curve, but China is moving ahead steadily, taking the first steps on the path to having a fully-fledged carrier force.


It also comes weeks ahead of a party congress expected to see the transition of power to a new generation of Chinese leaders.

The Liaoning was formally handed over to the navy at a ceremony attended by top Chinese leaders at Dalian Port, state-run Xinhua news agency said.

"Having the aircraft carrier enter the ranks will be of important significance in raising the overall fighting capacity of our nation's navy to a modern level," China's Defence Ministry said in a statement.

The vessel will "increase [China's] capacity to defend, develop its capacity to co-operate on the high seas in dealing with non-traditional security threats and will be effective in defending the interests of state sovereignty, security and development", it added.

The Liaoning, formerly known as the Varyag, was constructed in the 1980s for the Soviet navy but was never completed.

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the Varyag sat in Ukraine's dockyards. A Chinese company with links to China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) bought the ship just as Soviet warships were being cut for scrap. It said it wanted to turn the Varyag into a floating casino in Macau and in 2001 the ship was towed to China.

The Chinese military confirmed in June 2011 that it was being refitted to serve as the nation's first aircraft carrier.

Analysts say it will take years to outfit the carrier with aircraft and make it fully operational. But Chinese officials say that the Liaoning advances the country's military modernisation.

"The development of aircraft carriers is an important part of China's national defence modernisation, in particular its naval forces, and this aircraft carrier is an essential stepping stone toward its own more advanced aircraft carriers in the future," China's Rear Admiral Yang Yi wrote in state-run China Daily newspaper.

The carrier will be mostly used "for scientific research and training missions" so China could build "a more advanced aircraft carrier platform in the future", he added.
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Old 25th Sep 2012, 14:17
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Regarding the ongoing island dispute:-
Taiwan, Japan fire water cannon in disputed island controversy | Fox News
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Old 25th Sep 2012, 15:49
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It's like the Cod War all over again, except it's oil.
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Old 25th Sep 2012, 16:05
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Follow Hillery Clinton , The bitch on wheels, Every where she goes all he11 is let loose. been watching this from day one. It will get hot mid november just for the lap dogs master (Obama) It's Chinas land,
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Old 25th Sep 2012, 18:59
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China has published a white paper outlining their claim to the Diaoyu Islands. It's a long and interesting read, available by courtesy of Xinhuanet.

Full Text: Diaoyu Dao, an Inherent Territory of China - Xinhua | English.news.cn
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Old 26th Sep 2012, 07:40
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well it would wouldn't it?

These sort of claims can only be sorted out by negotiation between the parties or with a reference to the Hague and the sooner they start talking the better
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Old 26th Sep 2012, 09:30
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Having the aircraft carrier enter the ranks will be of important significance in raising the overall fighting capacity of our nation's navy to a modern level
It seems to me that while the USA held overwhelming carrier group force, they could easily deploy carrier groups for willy-waving "gunboat diplomacy" purposes. Once the carrier group becomes the international symbol of naval strngth and an arms race in carrier groups takes place, we have the same situation as when the Royal Navy was faced with the battleship arms race at the beginning of the 20th century. In the event, the battleship found itself outmoded and superseded by the carrier and the Royal Navy has declined from being the undisputed ruler of the waves to relative insignificance in the global order.

I can't help feeling that in the age of the cruise missile, the carrier may be about to go the way of the battleship. Hell, even the Brunei navy can sink an aircraft carrier, or the whole carrier group if they felt like sending all their boats out - as long as their opponent wasn't expecting it. I'm a short-arse myself and learned early in my school career that the best way to deal with big boy bullies was to go directly for their goolies while they were still talking tough (think Pearl Harbour).
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Old 26th Sep 2012, 13:50
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Blacksheep, good points on capital ships and their "day in the sun."

I'll suggest to you that torpedoes remain a simpler way to sink a carrier than cruise missiles. The concession I'll make to the cruise missile approach is the concept of the saturation raid: quantity does indeed have a quality all its own ... if you can keep one's own guidance methods from interfering with one another as the attacking party.

Mines and torpedoes operate under the premise that

It is easier to sink a ship by letting water in from the bottom (torpedo) than it is to do so by trying to let the air out from the top (bomb/missile).
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