Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[NutLoose]

This is telling, take out the radar system the other week that left the airbase vunerable, take out the airbase and the AA in the region with artillery and MLRS strikes, take out the headquarters buildings and then you can..

Twitter

It looks like the inverted main gear of another jet in the background?

[Tartiflette Fan]

Apparently only five of the 15 delivered PzH2000 are still operational: the others require repairs after the extremely intense usage they have been getting. The problem is that only small repairs are currently possible in Ukraine, and shipping them back to Poland is very time consuming and risky. Discussions about other possibilities ongoing.

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland..._52139887.html

In the same article, they report that Ukraine claims at least 10 aircraft destroyed during explosions at Saki airbase and Russia claims destruction of one Gepard Flakpanzer and seven Himars near Mikolajiw, and three fighter jets shot down in S Ukraine.

[PeterX60]

Dead pan:

Careless words cost lives - any hints of SF involvement and Russia will redouble their efforts to try and find them. Much better to run with the "new Ukrainian missile" line IMO, keep the Russkies guessing.

Or you plant a rumour and cause the Orcs to divert substantial resources to tracking mythical SF down, meanwhile terrorising the local population and increasing their resentment at occupying forces; or they think that you are messing with their minds and ignore the rumour, and so on.

Welcome to the world of intelligence warfare doublethink.

[ORAC]

SOF?

classic signature of the sonic boom arriving after the impact of a supersonic missile (2 explosions, 2 missiles), which also eliminates the Neptune ASM theory…

https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/stat...A-wI7kmQ1Dh1-w

[jolihokistix]

Totally clear skies. Would there not be some faint traces of burnt propellant?

[Davef68]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Your weekly reminder that production of MGM-140 ATACMS ended 15-yrs ago. Only 3,700 ever manufactured. Present inventory unk.
r.

Immediately contradicted by a poster who says that new production started.

[NutLoose]

What, like this? ORAC.. mach 2.5 missiles, a fascinating read through the thread on how it's worked out and from where.

https://twitter.com/rrichcord

and

Twitter

new footage of the latest Dam bridge strike

Twitter

..

[NutLoose]

Now they are trying to take out Chongar bridge?

If the Chongar Bridge were taken out, this would leave the Perekop Isthmus, about 8 km wide and with only two major roads and a rail line, as the only way in or out of Crimea from mainland Ukraine. A chain of salt lakes forms most of the border between Crimea and Kherson Oblast.

Twitter

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Your weekly reminder that production of MGM-140 ATACMS ended 15-yrs ago. Only 3,700 ever manufactured. Present inventory unk.
Its replacement, the "Precision Strike Missile," due to saturation levels of good idea fairies won't achieve IOC not until next year.

According to this info from LM, they made some more in 2017. Their story is that they've made 3800, and that 600 have been successfully fired.
(Mostly in Desert Storm and OIF, I suspect)
Your point on the zero sum inventory problem is agreed.

[NutLoose]

Possibly up to 60 pilots killed in the raid, though not confirmed.

Twitter

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by ORAC

SOF?

classic signature of the sonic boom arriving after the impact of a supersonic missile (2 explosions, 2 missiles), which also eliminates the Neptune ASM theory…

For those who (like me) were doubtful about this, I found the following 'best of' video of Spacex sonic booms:

Falcon 9 Sonic Booms Compilation

Pretty conclusive I'd say

[NutLoose]

Dead pan, read 7808 as how you can work out where it was launched from and when and indeed its speed by using magnetic anomaly signatures

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Dead pan, read 7808 as how you can work out where it was launched from and when and indeed its speed by using magnetic anomaly signatures

I did - who knew you could do this? There's me thinking MAD was only used for detecting submarines...

[ORAC]

So the missile hit on the barrack block wasn’t an error but another DH on a target - perhaps the most important one of all….

[Wokkafans]

That's one hell of a bait catapult.

Twitter

[NutLoose]

Crikey, that was close, he was just out of range of the shrapnel.

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by Wokkafans

That's one hell of a bait catapult.

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status...LAD505FrlYVuAQ

Absolutely ruined the fishing for the next couple of hours.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

What, like this? ORAC.. mach 2.5 missiles, a fascinating read through the thread on how it's worked out and from where.
..

I don't fully understand that plot, but it seems to show that something (missile flight ? ) took either 29 mins or 14 mins to fly 190 km which is 380 or 760 kph , but certainly not Mach 2.5.( 3 000 kph )

I have clearly gone awry - can you help ?

[NutLoose]

It went awfully high then came back down, not just straight across. I’ve copied the replies you would have needed to open to understand the witchcraft behind it.

14h
Replying to
@rrichcord
and
@glosmeusec
f missiles were the cause then they were pretty slow. (200.000mt/30minutes/)/60 =111mt/sec /343= aprox **match 0.323 **. That absolutely sub sonic. Maybe my bicycle can travel faster than that. Why werent they intercepted by russia ? no air defenses then ?
2
1
Anton Bohucek
@a_bohucek
·
12h
They must have been travelling in a high arc, so the distance travelled is actually much longer than the straight line distance between the presumed launch site and the arrival area.
3
20
eduardo
@ode4370
·
12h
I see now. Hmm that could indeed be the reason. Sorry for my error. I am still thinking cause Physics is not exactly my expertise area. I still remember some formulas though. tks.
3
Sahara
@LMR_Sahara
·
13h
Replying to
@rrichcord
and
@glosmeusec
Any idea on what missile this suggests?
1
6
Richard Cordaro
@rrichcord
·
13h
Unfortunately there is not enough information in the magnetic anomaly to suggest a missile type. Sharp spikes in the signature can give an indication of speed. Hypersonic missiles (>=Mach 5) show a few spikes. This missile showed only one spike so Mach 1 - 4, roughly.
4
1
87
Sahara
@LMR_Sahara
·
13h
Thanks
1
Crosspatch-
@VictorishB123
·
13h
Replying to
@rrichcord
and
@glosmeusec
By mach 2.5 are you saying that the time from the launch to strike indicates mach 2.5 ground speed? Because a missile such as the sort used for strikes like these take a very highly arched trajectory so the actual missile speed might be much faster.
1
1
35
Richard Cordaro
@rrichcord
·
13h
Yes, the missile no doubt took a highly arched trajectory and achieved higher speeds. My "Mach 2.5" came from an estimate of the speed of the shock wave that arrived in Lviv 6 min

[Thrust Augmentation]

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan

I don't fully understand that plot, but it seems to show that something (missile flight ? ) took either 29 mins or 14 mins to fly 190 km which is 380 or 760 kph , but certainly not Mach 2.5.( 3 000 kph )

I have clearly gone awry - can you help ?

ATACMS (for example) has a huge ceiling & can be launched off-axis on a "circuitous" path (to screw with counter battery), so distance flown hard to know.