Race to the bottom
Pilotless airliners are still a few decades away, but I do expect to see Co-pilot/FOs starting to be replaced by AI by the end of this decade. It might be just FOs with far reduced duties or expanded single pilot smaller aircraft as the technology moves in, but it's certainly already being developed into the latest new cockpit designs. Question then begs as to where the single pilot gets their experience and mentoring from.
You blokes are dreaming. Good luck getting the travelling public onboard with that idea.
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There is a metaphoric technological meteor hurtling towards the airline pilot community, which will effectively wipe it out. Just like the dinosaurs.
The pursuit of the god almighty dollar will eventually sway public opinion towards accepting a pilotless aircraft; albeit, maybe, with a ground based pilot monitoring on-board systems just like happens now with military drones.
The pursuit of the god almighty dollar will eventually sway public opinion towards accepting a pilotless aircraft; albeit, maybe, with a ground based pilot monitoring on-board systems just like happens now with military drones.
Checkout the USAF UAV fleet.
This old chestnut. When trains are driverless EVERYWHERE and container ships operate autonomously and driverless cars are able to operate safely, THEN you may see pilotless aircraft.
You blokes are dreaming. Good luck getting the travelling public onboard with that idea.
PS most of the accidents with self driving cars are not the car driving itself, usually when the owner is self driving and blames the car for the incident, as its the only option other than look stupider.
Big driver of automated vehicles is mine sites, as drivers cost them huge amounts, so lots of RnD constantly being poured into that area.
Last edited by 43Inches; 7th Aug 2022 at 04:16.
You mean the ones operated by a crew of two on the ground? Pilot and weapons specialist.
This old chestnut. When trains are driverless EVERYWHERE and container ships operate autonomously and driverless cars are able to operate safely, THEN you may see pilotless aircraft.
This old chestnut. When trains are driverless EVERYWHERE and container ships operate autonomously and driverless cars are able to operate safely, THEN you may see pilotless aircraft.
And that gets back to the point that actual fully automated airliners are a while away, but the days of the Co-Pilot are numbered, with HAL most likely appearing as your FO in a new large jet cockpit near you in the next 10 years.
There is a massive psychological difference between operating a USAF UAV designed for 'Destruction of Things' versus having joe-public onboard a UAV Airliner operated by a Stanford MPL with zero Skin-In-The-Game, operating from a sweltering shipping container in a country with the worst labour laws. Oh wait, nobody anticipates that this will be the then next cost destruction frontier for airline CEO's.
The Boeing 777X (an Old Bird with New bolt-ons), was launched in November 2013 and will only be delivered in 2025 - Clean sheet designs are not in fashion for CEO's seeking short term KPI bonuses.
The Boeing 777X (an Old Bird with New bolt-ons), was launched in November 2013 and will only be delivered in 2025 - Clean sheet designs are not in fashion for CEO's seeking short term KPI bonuses.
The unintended consequence of this would be the final decimation of the profession, even for airline management, as few (if any) would embark on a 20 000 hour career built on solitude in an aluminium tube for extended hours on end...Neurotic Pilots will become an everyday occurrence.
We have already lost one crew member to automation. We will loose another in the cruise segment sometime over the next decade. Takeoff and landing will have two until I’m dead and dust. Airliners have a 20 -30 year cycle. That’s a lot of coin to phase out the next type ahead of this timeline.
Beginning to operate a long haul flight with only 2 pilots… watch this space. FANS with only one pilot in the cruise rotating every 3 or 4 hours…. 10 years. Max
Beginning to operate a long haul flight with only 2 pilots… watch this space. FANS with only one pilot in the cruise rotating every 3 or 4 hours…. 10 years. Max
Single or no pilot airliners don't actually solve any problems though they only create new ones. You are taking one of the safest modes of transport ever known and making it less safe. Unless you can deliver the same or better hull loss with autonomous systems you aren't achieving anything and run the risk of destroying an entire industry.
There is a metaphoric technological meteor hurtling towards the airline pilot community, which will effectively wipe it out. Just like the dinosaurs.
The pursuit of the god almighty dollar will eventually sway public opinion towards accepting a pilotless aircraft; albeit, maybe, with a ground based pilot monitoring on-board systems just like happens now with military drones.
The pursuit of the god almighty dollar will eventually sway public opinion towards accepting a pilotless aircraft; albeit, maybe, with a ground based pilot monitoring on-board systems just like happens now with military drones.
Managements - as we know - always play pilots off against cheaper options. Instead of denying it will ever happen, the smart thing for today's pilots to do will be to lobby for very strict experience criteria so that today's 20 year old pilots end up as 45 year olds controlling UAVs.
As for public acceptance, if I am still alive to see it (and having met a few sub-standard pilots in my time), I would love to be the poster boy passenger on the first pilot-less flight, but fear I am not photogenic enough.
Exactly - just like the dinosaurs, we will become extinct. In the same way that good voice communications killed off the morse-key wielding radio operator, and inertial navigation systems killed off the sextant wielding navigator, and autothrottle etc the flight engineer, today's UAV technology will soon be safe enough to remove the pilot from the cockpit. Those who embrace this technology could be re-cycled to ground-based control jobs, because it will still require careful monitoring for weather events, malfunctions etc. Hopefully such jobs will reward experience with decent salaries. But the money won't be anything like it was in the golden years gone by, because there will be spotty-faced geeks aspiring to play these ultimate video games.
Managements - as we know - always play pilots off against cheaper options. Instead of denying it will ever happen, the smart thing for today's pilots to do will be to lobby for very strict experience criteria so that today's 20 year old pilots end up as 45 year olds controlling UAVs.
As for public acceptance, if I am still alive to see it (and having met a few sub-standard pilots in my time), I would love to be the poster boy passenger on the first pilot-less flight, but fear I am not photogenic enough.
Managements - as we know - always play pilots off against cheaper options. Instead of denying it will ever happen, the smart thing for today's pilots to do will be to lobby for very strict experience criteria so that today's 20 year old pilots end up as 45 year olds controlling UAVs.
As for public acceptance, if I am still alive to see it (and having met a few sub-standard pilots in my time), I would love to be the poster boy passenger on the first pilot-less flight, but fear I am not photogenic enough.
The failure rate is way too high.
You can all relax.
So what is the benefit of pilotless airliners exaclty? In the big scheme of the operation the pilots wages are insignificant anyway.
Next is the question of who is going to put thier money on the line to refine and develop the technology, and thats all before some regulator somewhere has to stick thier neck out to even certify it (We all now how difficult it is to even just get a medical renewed in a timely manner)
Once all thats done you have to convince the public there is something in it for them and get them on board... the same public who form thier unwavering views from social media and WhatsApp groups.
Remind me again what the benefits of a pilotless airliner were that make over coming all of those obstacles worth the risk and expense?
I dont doubt it's technologically possible, I just dont think its feasable in the lifetime of anyone here.
Next is the question of who is going to put thier money on the line to refine and develop the technology, and thats all before some regulator somewhere has to stick thier neck out to even certify it (We all now how difficult it is to even just get a medical renewed in a timely manner)
Once all thats done you have to convince the public there is something in it for them and get them on board... the same public who form thier unwavering views from social media and WhatsApp groups.
Remind me again what the benefits of a pilotless airliner were that make over coming all of those obstacles worth the risk and expense?
I dont doubt it's technologically possible, I just dont think its feasable in the lifetime of anyone here.
Sure, there are technical obstacles to overcome and refine. But 20 to 25 years is a long time in the evolution of aviation technology.
Commercial impetus and passenger acceptance of pilot-less flight only needs some nutcase pilot to pull another mass murder suicide, or do a “shut up Gringo” on a grand enough scale.
And yes before the anal retentives jump on me, I know he did not exactly say “shut up Gringo” but his reaction and comment was just as dismissive.
Commercial impetus and passenger acceptance of pilot-less flight only needs some nutcase pilot to pull another mass murder suicide, or do a “shut up Gringo” on a grand enough scale.
And yes before the anal retentives jump on me, I know he did not exactly say “shut up Gringo” but his reaction and comment was just as dismissive.
Last edited by Mach E Avelli; 7th Aug 2022 at 10:49.
I just don't think it's feasible in the lifetime of anyone here.
Have a little think about the infrastructure required to support a pilotless aircraft at airports alone then have a think about the country you live in. Australia. A state government announces a long awaited rail line to Tulla airport, then tells you it will be ready in 10 years. Yep, 10 years to build a 20k piece of track. Mind you 10 years is nothing when you consider the airport has been there for 45 years or so before a rail link was announced. Badgerys Creek took 34 years to commence construction. It would be piss easy to pilotless an aircraft from the US to Australia, it's been done before but have another think about the infrastructure required and think about the incredibly average infrastructure that Australia is famous for, Australia 'the lucky country' not.
Mach, pilotless aircraft would happen tomorrow if the Chinese were involved, mind you, that would depend on how soon they could steal the technology and would include quite a few accidents along the way. On your second point, I don't think it will be 25 years.
Australia is booming. Jobs are being created for pilots that were not there before. We have the USA taking Australian pilots in unprecedented fashion. All this as hundreds, maybe beyond a thousand experienced Australian pilots are home from abroad. We still have retirements and pilots fed up in bigger numbers than before. The employees of all those expat pilots have not recovered yet. Asian demand will eventually be extraordinary and not far behind the US.
Yet these pages are full of nauseating resignation and working class mindset. Start pushing back. I’ve no doubt retention will see you having an ear that wasn’t there before.
Yet these pages are full of nauseating resignation and working class mindset. Start pushing back. I’ve no doubt retention will see you having an ear that wasn’t there before.
Sure, there are technical obstacles to overcome and refine. But 20 to 25 years is a long time in the evolution of aviation technology.
Boeing & Airbus will still be making aircraft designed in the 1970s & 80's in the 2030's!!