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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 13th Apr 2021, 13:45
  #101 (permalink)  
 
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It’s actually a pretty sad state of affairs that the Shenanigans of Stalin MkII and Mao MKII are killing and will continue to kill millions of their own, to protect their egos and their Chronies stolen wealth.

In all honesty, the Russian people are good people, the Chinese can be great fun, we all (generally) like beer, we all laugh. I propose a BBQ where each nation has to do a pantomime taking the Mickey out of their own leaders. Bring the buggers down to our level, then we can go back home with some great memories about how we laughed about how sociopathic, ignorant and egotistical our “elected” “leaders” and their chronies are.

It’s sad that the expansionist (disguised self protection from internal uprisings) focus of a couple of nutters is going to result in millions of deaths.
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 13:51
  #102 (permalink)  
 
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I did hear from a Russian Military colleague that if things were to escalate we'd see much activity in Tiraspol beforehand (stuff flying in), forgive my lack of knowledge but would this be called a pincer movement? I doubt though this would happen.. it would imply a total invasion.

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Old 13th Apr 2021, 14:46
  #103 (permalink)  
 
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Ukraine as buffer

A colleague, who had grown up and been educated (very well as a PhD scientist) in E Germany, told me Russia viewed Ukrsine and many former satellites as a buffer against invasion (by Germany).
Whilst he accepted Europe invading Russia a third time would never happen, the fear is deeply ingrained in the Russian psyche.
So ex-satellites joining NATO only increases that imagined fear. He asked how the US would feel if Russia ignored the Monroe doctrine, built up the militaries of all the Central American states, including Mexico. The Cuban missile crisis notwithstanding, I think the point is a good one. If anything, Cuba demonstrated how sensitive the US was to neighbors undet Soviet influence.
If the Ukraine stops begging to join NATO or have a NATO build-up in response to the Russian build-up, it's possible the Russian forces would go home.
Of course, I am no expert and trusting Russia may be naive, but his logic did make sense, to me at least.
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 16:18
  #104 (permalink)  
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@skydivernigel : I concur with your statements . I have been a few times professionally to Russia , the first time when it was still the USSR under Andropov ( who still emembers him ?) and when we in the West were so afraid of a Warsaw pact invasion (interesting concept the Warsaw pact for those old enough to remember) following the Prague Spring crush down . etc..
A few things struck me when discovering the real Russians was their absolute belief that we were going to invade them again .When we told them it was the other way around, they just laughed and replied : with what ? . So much for the propaganda from both sides.
Another thing we forget is that Russia has been invaded twice in recent history and defeated both invasion's at a huge human cost ( and the help of winter) and US and UK were never invaded . The psyche is different .

Having been around the globe a little since discussing ATC related matters with colleagues from those places, one can see that double standards exists from all sides . Ukraine and NATO are good examples. A large border separate Ukraine and Russia and Russia cannot accept to have US troops stationed at its borders, the same that US would not accept Russian troops at their border with in Canada or Mexico.
That is a fact , and last, as far as "democracy and dictatorships " it is amazing , if it was not tragic, to see that US politics today , whether under Trump or Biden, struggle with massive illegal immigration at their Southern border caused only by their continuous own support to violent anti democratic regimes in Central America.
The world is a mess, yes, but it always had been no ?
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 16:34
  #105 (permalink)  
 
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Lieutenant General Ben Hodges - I've heard him speak - very very impressive. Not your gung-ho kill everything type but measured, very thoughtful and crystal clear
Definitely a man to listen to
Wow. He might have been an efficient commander (although I don’t think he has seen any actual combat engagement) but I wouldn't let him anywhere near any kind a power position. His recent comments about how WWII was fought are nothing short of disgusting. His gung-ho approach to antagonise Russia is also quite worrying. I'd really like to see him re-enlist for front line cannon fodder service.
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 19:27
  #106 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by skydivernigel View Post
A colleague, who had grown up and been educated (very well as a PhD scientist) in E Germany, told me Russia viewed Ukrsine and many former satellites as a buffer against invasion (by Germany).
Whilst he accepted Europe invading Russia a third time would never happen, the fear is deeply ingrained in the Russian psyche.
So ex-satellites joining NATO only increases that imagined fear. He asked how the US would feel if Russia ignored the Monroe doctrine, built up the militaries of all the Central American states, including Mexico. The Cuban missile crisis notwithstanding, I think the point is a good one. If anything, Cuba demonstrated how sensitive the US was to neighbors undet Soviet influence.
If the Ukraine stops begging to join NATO or have a NATO build-up in response to the Russian build-up, it's possible the Russian forces would go home.
Of course, I am no expert and trusting Russia may be naive, but his logic did make sense, to me at least.
Agreed,
the US would take action pretty quick if a Central American country ot Carribbean island became a Russian satellite, in fact it is doing that economically now to Venezuela, the west should not have encouraged Ukraine to change allegiances. They should have remained in the Russian sphere of influence, it’s not fair on the Ukrainian people but you cannot please all the people all the time and it is a lot better than a major confrontation.
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 20:12
  #107 (permalink)  
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You could make the same case concerning Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

Then there’s the rest of Georgia to the south. As well as Ukraine let’s add Moldova because of Transdnistra.

You could then suggest Poland fir a land corridor to Kaliningrad...

First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.

Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a trade unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me....
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 20:45
  #108 (permalink)  
 
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Careful

There are some utter arses still within the military that answer posts in the Express or Daily Mail; stupidly answering to Russian trolls.
The higher the rank, the more stupid you people are.. not everyone on here is HIS, but if you don’t know how they work then just shut up.
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Old 14th Apr 2021, 02:15
  #109 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATC Watcher View Post
@skydivernigel : I concur with your statements . I have been a few times professionally to Russia , the first time when it was still the USSR under Andropov ( who still emembers him ?) and when we in the West were so afraid of a Warsaw pact invasion (interesting concept the Warsaw pact for those old enough to remember) following the Prague Spring crush down . etc..
A few things struck me when discovering the real Russians was their absolute belief that we were going to invade them again .When we told them it was the other way around, they just laughed and replied : with what ? . So much for the propaganda from both sides.
Another thing we forget is that Russia has been invaded twice in recent history and defeated both invasion's at a huge human cost ( and the help of winter) and US and UK were never invaded . The psyche is different .

Having been around the globe a little since discussing ATC related matters with colleagues from those places, one can see that double standards exists from all sides . Ukraine and NATO are good examples. A large border separate Ukraine and Russia and Russia cannot accept to have US troops stationed at its borders, the same that US would not accept Russian troops at their border with in Canada or Mexico.
That is a fact , and last, as far as "democracy and dictatorships " it is amazing , if it was not tragic, to see that US politics today , whether under Trump or Biden, struggle with massive illegal immigration at their Southern border caused only by their continuous own support to violent anti democratic regimes in Central America.
The world is a mess, yes, but it always had been no ?
Yours and Nigel’s post ignores the former satellites right of determination wrt allies. Let the Russians hold an opinion and paranoia. It complements their neighbors concerns.
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Old 14th Apr 2021, 03:26
  #110 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by West Coast View Post
Yours and Nigel’s post ignores the former satellites right of determination wrt allies. Let the Russians hold an opinion and paranoia. It complements their neighbors concerns.
Exactly. There's a reason why many of the former soviet countries prefer the NATO membership. Ukraine is a perfect sample. No one wants little green men in their backyard.
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Old 14th Apr 2021, 07:23
  #111 (permalink)  
 
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Agreed - its counter -productive. The USSR always treat the Finns differently through the Cold War. They left them alone but made it pretty clear they weren't to join NATO - it worked quite well on both sides - Russia retained their buffer and the Finns kept their western ways without any paranoia about the USSR "taking over" and profited as a conduit for two way trade
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Old 14th Apr 2021, 08:15
  #112 (permalink)  
 
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The USSR is long gone. Independent countries decide for themselves.
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Old 14th Apr 2021, 09:15
  #113 (permalink)  
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Yours and Nigel’s post ignores the former satellites right of determination wrt allies.
Guys, I know I am not in my natural habitat in this military forum so will not prolong this discussion too long anymore. just when one mention the right of self determination , and right to determine its allies, without looking at its consequences it is extremely simplistic. The right of self determination with its own " freedom fighters" , always labeled terrorists by the other side, has probably caused more deaths and misery since WW2 than the few conventional wars during the same period. . Just ask the Kurds for instance.

To come back to this tread, I am neither pro Russian nor pro Ukrainian, I have no horse in this race, just the impression of having seen the movie already before .
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Old 14th Apr 2021, 10:30
  #114 (permalink)  
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Just ask the Kurds for instance.
Or the Chechens, Tartars or Ughurs.

China and Russia are always fiercely defensive of the rights of countries to do as they wish within their own borders, which they regard as purely internal affairs and brook no interference from other nations.

The problem comes when they perceive some historic right to a “sphere of influence “ from the USSR and the authority to act in the same way within their neighbours territory.
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Old 14th Apr 2021, 10:33
  #115 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
the Finns kept their western ways without any paranoia about the USSR "taking over" and profited as a conduit for two way trade
Actually, it wasn't that simple. The 1961 note crisis was a good example. There was always the possibility of invasion, and that threat was used by soviets to influence the internal politics.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Note_Crisis

The way I see it, nothing has changed, ie Georgia, Ukraine.
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Old 14th Apr 2021, 10:58
  #116 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
Agreed - its counter -productive. The USSR always treat the Finns differently through the Cold War. They left them alone but made it pretty clear they weren't to join NATO - it worked quite well on both sides - Russia retained their buffer and the Finns kept their western ways without any paranoia about the USSR "taking over" and profited as a conduit for two way trade
Thats the way it should be with Ukraine, be neutral, friendly with both influences and recognize the realities and limitations of your position
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Old 14th Apr 2021, 13:53
  #117 (permalink)  
 
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Ukraine as buffer

Originally Posted by West Coast View Post
Yours and Nigel’s post ignores the former satellites right of determination wrt allies. Let the Russians hold an opinion and paranoia. It complements their neighbors concerns.
A good point, I agree. Not sure how to square the right to self determination with Russian anxiety of history. Ukraine is the 'land-sea' though, that has to be crossed to get to Moscow. And whose logistics scuppered Napoleon and Hitler. I suspect the deafening silence (about the build up on Ukrainian borders) from the West, and reluctance to bring Ukraine into the NATO fold, is acknowledgement that Western military intervention could rapidly escalate into full blown war. Whilst SD is a right, and many ex Soviet bloc countries have indeed joined NATO, I think it behoves the Ukraine - and NATO countries - to not poke the bear...

PS had no idea my post here would generate so much comment, had no intent to hijack the thread.

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Old 14th Apr 2021, 15:20
  #118 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATC Watcher View Post
Guys, I know I am not in my natural habitat in this military forum so will not prolong this discussion too long anymore. just when one mention the right of self determination , and right to determine its allies, without looking at its consequences it is extremely simplistic. The right of self determination with its own " freedom fighters" , always labeled terrorists by the other side, has probably caused more deaths and misery since WW2 than the few conventional wars during the same period. . Just ask the Kurds for instance.

To come back to this tread, I am neither pro Russian nor pro Ukrainian, I have no horse in this race, just the impression of having seen the movie already before .
Who says the Ukrainians didn't consider the consequences of whom they aligned with?
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Old 14th Apr 2021, 16:43
  #119 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by West Coast View Post
Who says the Ukrainians didn't consider the consequences of whom they aligned with?
this pretty well sums it up in this thread. We have pro-Russians with their agenda present, and we have people from more distant countries participating (mostly from traditional "western" countries), but no one has yet stated being an Ukrainian. I would love to hear that point of view as well.

...and now I'll have my popcorn ready to see some new nick suddenly joining the forum with Ukraine as location and posting here as their first post giving the same arguments as certain pro-Russians here....
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Old 14th Apr 2021, 17:31
  #120 (permalink)  
 
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In The Times.
Biden seeks talks with Putin as Russian troops mass at Ukraine border

Ukraine gave warning today that Russia could deploy nuclear missiles to the Crimea as part of a massive military build-up in the volatile region.

Andrii Taran, Ukraine’s defence minister, said that Russia might also be planning to attack his country to secure water supplies for the Black Sea peninsula, which was annexed by the Kremlin in 2014. Crimea has suffered water shortages since Ukraine built a dam that cut off supplies to the region in 2017.

“Crimea’s infrastructure is being prepared for potentially storing nuclear weapons,” Taran, 66, told a European parliament defence committee. His comments came before an emergency meeting of defence and foreign ministers from Nato member states that was called because of the crisis. Taran did not provide evidence for his claims.

Kiev says that Russia has amassed about 80,000 troops on its borders with Ukraine in its biggest show of force in the region since a peace deal ended large-scale fighting in 2015. Nato has called Russia’s moves “unjustified, unexplained and deeply concerning”. President Biden has vowed that the United States will stand behind Ukraine.

As part of its build-up, Russia has sent tanks, rocket artillery and short-range ballistic missiles to a newly established military base in the Voronezh region, which is 150 miles from Ukraine. Russia also said today that its navy had begun a training exercise in the Black Sea before the arrival of two US warships in the region. Sergei Shoygu, the defence minister, said that Russia’s troop movements were a reaction to the “threatening military activity of Nato”, especially in Poland and the Baltic region.

Russia insists that it has no plans to attack Ukraine and the Kremlin has accused western countries of turning the region into a “powder keg”. A senior Kremlin official has said, however, that Russia would defend its citizens in the event of a Ukrainian military assault on breakaway regions controlled by Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. Russia has handed out up to 400,000 passports in the disputed region since 2019.

Biden has urged Russia to de-escalate border tensions and proposed a face-to-face meeting with President Putin on neutral territory. Senior officials in Moscow today welcomed the proposal.

Leonid Slutsky, the head of the Russian parliament’s international affairs committee, said that Biden’s offer represented a move by Washington “from confrontation to dialogue”.

Konstantin Kosachyov, the speaker of the Russian upper house, said: “Suggesting a third country means that this offer of a meeting was made in earnest.”

The Kremlin said that certain conditions would need to be met for a meeting to go ahead, but gave no details. The talks would be the first US-Russia summit since Putin met President Trump in Helsinki in 2018. President Zelensky of Ukraine is due to meet President Macron in France on Friday to discuss the crisis.




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