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Search: Posts Made By: slats11
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Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
19th Aug 2020, 11:37
Replies: 2,528
Views: 1,052,337
Posted By slats11

Vaccine is a long way off. 6 months ago, 18...

Vaccine is a long way off. 6 months ago, 18 months was very optimistic. I don’t think anything has changed.

in computer speak, a vaccine is vapourware.
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
3rd Aug 2020, 03:38
Replies: 2,528
Views: 1,052,337
Posted By slats11

Worth a read. Embrace change, or it will...

Worth a read.
Embrace change, or it will embrace you

The structural changes of COVID-19
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/08/the-structural-changes-of-covid-19/
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
2nd Aug 2020, 22:45
Replies: 2,528
Views: 1,052,337
Posted By slats11

One of the problems with any group is...

One of the problems with any group is confirmation bias. Everyone in the group sees things the same way and confirms each other’s perspective.

Airline pilots are young (with lots of productive...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
2nd Aug 2020, 04:35
Replies: 2,528
Views: 1,052,337
Posted By slats11

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-econ...

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3095656/grounded-pandemic-hong-kong-singapore-list-10
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
2nd Aug 2020, 04:27
Replies: 2,528
Views: 1,052,337
Posted By slats11

I sense some here may be under-estimating the...

I sense some here may be under-estimating the scale of this economic shock. We have to go back at least 90 years to find something this big. Some data suggests significantly further back...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
15th Jul 2020, 09:55
Replies: 2,528
Views: 1,052,337
Posted By slats11

I expect the management and Boards of most...

I expect the management and Boards of most airlines will have commissioned their own research. Moving planes to the desert and long term restructuring of the workforce are significant undertakings....
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
15th Jul 2020, 00:47
Replies: 2,528
Views: 1,052,337
Posted By slats11

A recent Deloitte report suggests domestic travel...

A recent Deloitte report suggests domestic travel volumes will not return to 2019 levels until 2023. Thats domestic. International is worse.
Available here...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
23rd Jun 2020, 14:13
Replies: 2,528
Views: 1,052,337
Posted By slats11

A safe and effective vaccine is conceivable given...

A safe and effective vaccine is conceivable given the huge $ being spent this time, and given the many independent efforts currently underway. But previous SARS coronavirus vaccine research failed...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
23rd Jun 2020, 09:50
Replies: 2,528
Views: 1,052,337
Posted By slats11

The other issue is you need to think in terms of...

The other issue is you need to think in terms of yield or revenue rather than capacity.

All seats are not equal. 1 business pax (even full fare Y) MEL-BNE-MEL is higher yield than a family of 4...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
20th Jun 2020, 02:49
Replies: 2,528
Views: 1,052,337
Posted By slats11

Just ask video libraries and bookshops how the...

Just ask video libraries and bookshops how the internet changed their business model.

no one is saying there will be zero business travel, and it is a straw man argument to say anyone did.
...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
19th Jun 2020, 06:47
Replies: 2,528
Views: 1,052,337
Posted By slats11

Yep. But my guess is a very large % were leisure....

Yep. But my guess is a very large % were leisure. People are sick of not travelling and sick of holidays at home.

Managers don’t really care whether employees are sick of no business travel. In...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
19th Jun 2020, 06:19
Replies: 2,528
Views: 1,052,337
Posted By slats11

Of course he is. Many travel / hotel /...

Of course he is. Many travel / hotel / accommodation / travel agent groups are members of this organisation. So it is only right and appropriate he represent these interests. Otherwise why would they...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
19th Jun 2020, 04:36
Replies: 2,528
Views: 1,052,337
Posted By slats11

You are telling me what the employee is wanting...

You are telling me what the employee is wanting and what they are sick of. I am telling you what management and accounting and risk management are thinking. For the foreseeable future, business...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
19th Jun 2020, 02:23
Replies: 2,528
Views: 1,052,337
Posted By slats11

Hang together or hang separately. Your managers...

Hang together or hang separately. Your managers must be just loving this. Divide and conquer.
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
19th Jun 2020, 01:15
Replies: 2,528
Views: 1,052,337
Posted By slats11

True. The future is unclear. But if you...

True. The future is unclear.

But if you don't plan your future, others will plan it for you. Guess what they have planned? Nothing good.

So plan for aviation to be very different for years to...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
18th Jun 2020, 05:46
Replies: 2,528
Views: 1,052,337
Posted By slats11

I suspect you are right. There had already...

I suspect you are right.

There had already been a progressive transfer of risk to the individual eg casualisation of the workforce, more superannuation & less pension ....

COVID will...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
18th Jun 2020, 00:31
Replies: 2,528
Views: 1,052,337
Posted By slats11

Good to know the taxpayer is on the hook for this...

Good to know the taxpayer is on the hook for this one
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
17th Jun 2020, 23:49
Replies: 2,528
Views: 1,052,337
Posted By slats11

Unless they are “students” of course. Then it’s...

Unless they are “students” of course. Then it’s open sesame.
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
17th Jun 2020, 09:22
Replies: 2,528
Views: 1,052,337
Posted By slats11

TAB etc do a better job of picking winners...

TAB etc do a better job of picking winners (sports or elections) than do professional pollsters. Partly because people place their $ on what they honestly believe the outcome will be - not on the...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
17th Jun 2020, 08:58
Replies: 2,528
Views: 1,052,337
Posted By slats11

Yes. Previous CV vaccine research ran into...

Yes. Previous CV vaccine research ran into problems. Far from being protective, vaccinated animals did worse when subsequently exposed to the virus. In the end, SARS disappeared and CV vaccine...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
17th Jun 2020, 03:04
Replies: 2,528
Views: 1,052,337
Posted By slats11

Back in February on another thread, I was warning...

Back in February on another thread, I was warning this was going to be huge. I was repeatedly told "this virus has nothing to do with aviation so take your opinions elsewhere", as well as receiving...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
9th Jun 2020, 06:59
Replies: 2,528
Views: 1,052,337
Posted By slats11

This is one of the strangest virus outbreaks. It...

This is one of the strangest virus outbreaks. It is very strange clinically. It is also very strange epidemiologically. There has been a lot to learn, and much remains unknown.

However, it...
Showing results 1 to 22 of 22


 
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